The volume of world merchandise trade rose 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, thanks to rising imports in North America in anticipation of rising tariffs in the United States, the World Trade Organization reported Tuesday.
The volume of world merchandise trade increased 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, thanks to the rise in imports in North America in anticipation of the growth of tariffs in the United States, the World Trade Organization reported on Tuesday; at a quarter-on-quarter rate, the increase in this indicator was 3.6 percent.
The new tariffs announced by the United States on April 2, at the beginning of the second quarter, were widely expected, allowing importers to frontload their purchases to avoid paying higher tariffs later.
Trade volume growth in the first quarter exceeded the projections published in the WTO’s April 16 World Trade Outlook and Statistics report, both for the Secretariat’s baseline forecast of 2.7% by 2025, which assumed a continuation of policies in place at the beginning of the year, and for the adjusted forecast of -0.2% considering policies in place on April 16.
Since then, various trade agreements and measures have changed the adjusted forecast slightly, but in mid-June merchandise trade growth for the year was expected to be virtually unchanged at 0.1 percent.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar value of world merchandise trade-measured by exports on a non-seasonally adjusted basis-rose 4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting solid growth in volume terms and a decline in prices. The value of trade in the first quarter decreased compared to the previous quarter due to the usual seasonal variation, but seasonally adjusted figures continued to increase.